Leader Recovery Segment:
Torbert recovery dr= 5, NE.
Hill recovery dr= 3, NE.
Lee recovers automatically.
Strategic segment:
strategic dr= 6+5= 11, Sherman Wins Big.
Reinforcement Segment:
CSA reinforcement dr= 4, 3 manpower show up. Field gets 2, Hagood 1.
8 Union replacements from last cycle arrive. Wadsworth gets 5, Griffin 3.
Union has 104 total losses minus 46 already received is 58 unreplaced losses. Modifier is times 4.
Union replacement dr= 3 times 4 = 12 manpower next strategic cycle. All replacements are headed for the Army of the Potomac.
Valley segment:
Thoburn, Duffie and Moor attack New Market.
Crawford, 15NY and 20PA attack Charlottesville.
Crook, Sickel, Hayes and White attack Lynchburg.
vs New Market: tactical -1, 13:9= 0 for a -1 attack
U5 1Da, Thoburn to manlevel 5. Sigel captures New Market.
C2 1Dr result, Echols to manpower 2. Breckenridge, Echols, Imboden, VMI Cadets and Wharton are forced to retreat to Burkeville.
vs Charlottesville: 7:6= 0, tactical 0 for a +0 attack
U5 Fa result. Crawford captures Charlottesville.
C2 Dr result, NE. WE Jones, Jackson and McClausland retreat to Burkeville.
vs Lynchburg: 11:5= +1, tactical 0 for a +1 attack
U4 1Da result, Hayes to manlevel 3. Crook captures Lynchburg.
C3 Dr result. Vaughn, BH Jones and Browne retreat to Burkeville.
Not much for me to do in the Valley but watch him crow! Those rolls are really amazing! My odds sheet tells me he has a real low probability of r or R with a -1(16.7%) and a 0(27.8%) attack -but in these off map deals he has consistently hit them!
I did the attacks in the exact order needed to force retreats to Burkeville and they all paid off. I thought for sure I'd lose the Lynchburg attack after winning the first 2 combats. Incredibly, Sigel is about to be replaced by Hunter after clearing the entire Shenendoah Valley of enemy forces!
Bermuda Hundred Segment:
Terry moves to Drewry's Bluff, Ames entrenches there.
Beauregard, Ransom, Martin, Wise, Lewis, Dearing and Corse attack Port Walthall Junction.
vs PWJ: tactical +1, 18:36(18)= -1 for a +0 attack
U3 1Dr result, Brooks to manlevel 7. Butler, Smith, Brooks, Hinks and
retreat to Drewry's Bluff.
C6 1Fa result, Course to manlevel 1.
In the Bermuda Hundred I will get to at least try something. Hey maybe the odds are different off the map! Finally I do something there! Can you say too little too late?
I was willing to chance losing PWJ, reinforcing Drewry's Bluff was more important after Breckenridge retreated to Burkeville. If forced to retreat from Drewry's Bluff next cycle I can always retreat to Bermuda Hundred.
Depot segment:
Union places a depot build at White House Landing.
The Union Navy marker stays on the "Transport Supplies" side because a depot was placed in a landing hex.
CSA depot dr= 6 fail
Any attack by Heth against the depot is Lee +1, tactical +2, assault +1, 2:8= -3, artillery -1, gunboat -2 for a -2 attack. I'll entrench Willcox and reinforce him with Kitching. If Scott had held onto Charlottesville he could have flipped the Hanover Junction to it's complete side if he'd passed his roll. Even after losing the battle he could have put the a depot build in Hollywood Cemetary under Wilcox if he was willing to absorb attacks from Gillmore in the Capital.
Supply status segment:
Turner, Chapman, Merritt, JI Gregg and Devin are out of supply.
Walker, BR Johnson, Wilcox, Butler, Hunton, Gordon and Heth are out of supply.
Ammunition segment:
All Union units in Caroline, New Kent, Hanover and Spotsylvania counties are provisioned.
All reb units in Hanover County are provisioned.
Union Command segment:
Sigel dr= 4 - 1 (Sherman) = 3, 1 command point
Butler dr= 6 - 1 (Drewry's Bluff) - 1 (Sherman)= 4 fail.
Sigel stays active.
Butler goes passive.
It's hard to believe Sigel is still active.
VP segment:
+3 Port Walthall Junction - May 7
+3 Port Walthall Junction - May 11
+3 Port Walthall Junction - May 15
+3 Port Walthall Junction - May 19
+3 Port Walthall Junction - May 23
+10 Petersburg - May 11
+10 Petersburg - May 15
+3 Caroline county - May 15
+3 Caroline county - May 19
+3 Caroline county - May 23
+3 Caroline county - May 27
+3 New Kent County - May 23
+3 Staunton - May 23
+3 Staunton - May 27
+3 Lexington - May 23
+3 Lexington - May 27
+10 Lynchburg - May 27
+5 Drewry's Bluff - May 23
+5 Drewry's Bluff - May 27
+15 Bumpass Turnout depot destroyed
+15 Capital depot destroyed
+195 CSA losses
-214 Union losses
-30 Brandy Station depot destroyed
-20 White House Landing depot destroyed
Equals +43 VP, a CSA Substantive victory at this point.
But a gain of 25 from last cycle even with a depot build destroyed. I've lost 42 more manpower than Scott but I'm only down 19 VP. This is the first game I've seen where the Union replacements are starting to be a factor. The longer the game the smaller the Army of Northern Virginia will be. It's looking like I'll need to roll a 5 or more with 2 dice to keep the game going on May 31, not a bad bet.
We're up to 58 Union losses replaced by Halleck's efficient organization in Washington. That's an extra 29,000 men ... 5,000 above the number for May 27 in the historical campaign. Time for some math on the VP. If the game ends on May 31 and the positions are the same as currently, Paul would gain:
+10 VP for one Union infantry division in RichmondOverall that's 43 more VP ... enough to put Paul at +86. He needs 34 more to get to a Union marginal. Certainly achievable in this strategic cycle when you realize he gets 5 move VP for each infantry division that is from 1 to 5 hexes from Richmond at the end of four more turns. However I wouldn't take the end of game roll for granted ... even needing a 5 is a 1-in-6 chance the game will end ... If I were Paul I'd try to count points and make sure I have enough before that roll of May 31. Grant's army has lost 107 manpower ... 53,500 men. That's 5,000 more than Grant/Butler/Sigel lost historically through Cold Harbor (June 3 ... 8 days later). It certainly makes sense those boys in blue might run out of steam any day now after that much punishment.